After five months of growth, June saw a cyclical decline in exports to both EU and non-EU markets. According to the analysis published by Istat, in the second quarter of 2022, the economic trend is however very positive, although decelerating (+6.2%, from +8.0% in the first quarter).
On an annual basis, export growth slows but remains very strong, with widespread increases in all sectors and all major partner countries, excluding Russia and Switzerland. Purchases of natural gas and crude oil contribute 15.7 percentage points to the marked trend increase in imports of our country.
The energy deficit widens further, because of strong increases in average unit values for gas, crude oil and electricity imports, and exceeds 48 billion in the first six months of the year; in the same period the trade deficit is close to 13 billion, while in the first six months of 2021, the surplus was almost 29 billion.
In June, after the moderate increase in May, the cyclical growth of import prices started to accelerate again on an annual basis, mainly contributing to the rise in the prices of energy products in the non-euro area.
Analysing the data in detail, the Istat report says that in June 2022 it is estimated cyclical growth for imports (+1.8%) and a decline for exports (-2.1%). The decrease in exports on a monthly basis is due to the decrease in sales to both areas, more intensely for the EU area (-2.6%) compared to non-EU markets (-1.4%).
In the second quarter of 2022, exports grew by 6.2% compared to the previous quarter, while imports grew by 11.3%.
In June 2022, exports increased on an annual basis by 21.2%, with sustained growth of similar intensity towards both areas, EU (+21.2%) and non-EU (+21.1%). Import shows a trend increase of 44.2%, which involves a much larger area outside the EU (+75.1%) than the EU area (+22.1%).
The sectors that contribute most to the trend increase in exports are refined petroleum products (+100.9%), pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal, and botanical products (+47.8%), chemicals and products (+30.0%), machinery and appliances n.c.a. (+10.1%) and food, beverages and tobacco (+19.6%).
On an annual basis, the countries that provide the largest contributions to the increase in domestic exports are the United States (+25.3%), Germany (+15.6%), France (+16.7%), Belgium (+54.0%) and Turkey (+87.4%). Exports to Russia (-19.1%) continued to decline sharply; sales to Switzerland also fell slightly (-2.2%).
In the first six months of 2022, the trend growth in exports (+22.4%) is due to the increase in sales of base metals and metal products, excluding machines and plants (+25.7%), pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal and botanical products (+36.7%) refined petroleum products (+99.7%), chemicals and substances (+28.8%) and food, beverages and tobacco (+20.6%).
In June 2022, the trade deficit amounted to 2,166 million euros, compared to a surplus of 5,673 million euros in June 2021. The energy deficit reaches 9,257 million (it was 2,637 million a year earlier). The surplus in the exchange of non-energy products is reduced to 7,091 million, from 8,310 million in June 2021.
In June 2022 import prices increased by 1.8% monthly and 21.5% on an annual basis (it was +20.1% in May).